Peak oil and Iraqi oil
I've seen predictions that petroleum
consumption rate will go from current 83 up to 120 million bpd (barrels per day)
in 2025. Others predict that the peak production rate may already have been
reached and that the rate can be as low as 60 million bpd in 2025. One thing is
sure: in long term the consumption cannot exceed production.
"In the January 2004 Current Events
on this web site, I predicted that world oil production would peak on
Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005. In hindsight, that prediction was
in error by three weeks. An update using the 2005 data shows that we
passed the peak on December 16, 2005... That's it. I can now refer to
the world oil peak in the past tense. My career as a prophet is over.
I'm now an historian." 
are finding less and less oil in spite of vigorous efforts, suggesting
that nature may not have much more to provide... Oil peaking is a liquid
fuels problem, not an 'energy crisis' in the sense that the term has
often been used. Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships simply have
no ready alternative to liquid fuels" 
With the price of a cup of coffee you get
five liters (about one and half gallons) crude oil, which was made 200 million
to billion years ago. This is like dollars raining from sky. High car
registration fees, heavy gasoline taxation, legislation etc are needed to
decrease irresponsible consumption of oil.
"We should lessen our demand and
conserve what is left. By inference that will reduce dependence on the
Middle East. There is one simple way of doing this, and that is to raise
gasoline taxes in the U.S." 
China has multiplied their car sales and halved their bicycle
sales in a decade. Also I do not support the idea that 3.4 billion Asians start
to fly around the globe just for fun. Good news for automakers and for Boeing
and Airbus, but is it really good news?
It is estimated that
Iraq's oil reserves are about 260 000 000 000 barrels. This multiplied by
US$75/barrel = US$19 500 000 000 000 present value = US$19.5 trillion + huge
untapped natural gas resources (US$10 trillion?) – makes it US$29.5 trillion.
These figures can be compared with the cost of war so far
– US$0.279 trillion.
Also it is not about money. It is about economy, it is
about the continuing of the life styles in the first world. Oil runs everything.
Try filling your SUV with dollars.
Iraqis are rich. You divide the above figure 29.5
trillion by 26.8 million (Iraqi population) and you get over one million
dollars per capita wealth buried underground. If you rob somebody, you better
rob the rich and weak. Bush administration knew that all too well. Iraqis had
something USA does not have but they desperately need.
"Oil prices that far north of
$100/barrel would almost certainly trigger massive, last-ditch global
resource wars as the industrialized nations of the world scramble to
grab what little of the black stuff is remaining.
...The true consequences of Peak
Oil cannot be acknowledged in such a highly public forum (US Congress)
without crashing the financial markets or begging the obvious yet
politically-dangerous and 'patriotically-incorrect' question:
Is the war in Iraq really a war for
the world's last remaining significant sized deposits of oil?" 
Deffeyes Kenneth S., Join us as we
watch the crisis unfolding,
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events-06-02.html, February 11,
Hirsch, R.L., Bezdek, R.H, Wendling,
R.M. Peaking of World oil production: impacts, mitigation and risk
management. DOE NETL. February 2005.
Judis John B., Oil crisis, The New
Republic Online (www.tnr.com), February 14, 2006.
Savinar Matt, Life after the oil crash,
I recommend the above links for further